Week 15 war room help me out on tuesday and Wednesday to find my plays of the week

[ACE-ACE]

Action………………………4-7…………………..-2759.00
Investment……………….29-37………………-20,059.00
Total …………………..…..33-44……………….-22,818.00

alway make my pick by Wednesday so in the next two day I would like the power of this forum to help pick a game or total that worth my two unit play (2000)

tell me why

I have got it down to 5 games….my hope is there a match or something more to think about.


with only 8 weeks to go 2852.00 is what I need a week…..but the next 3 weeks is key


Ace

 

[Mofome2]

You shouldn't need anyone to help you Ace. Just do you. Last night I commented I thought no way SD would win especially with Herbert. They did and nice call. Good luck this week. Actually you could easily take some peeps plays and fade them. Just saying.

 

[MotorCityMadman]

You shouldn't need anyone to help you Ace. Just do you. Last night I commented I thought no way SD would win especially with Herbert. They did and nice call. Good luck this week. Actually you could easily take some peeps plays and fade them. Just saying.

I could give you the peeps play. Since you get bet early they would not be of help to you. Be the Captain of the ship.

 

[itchy_pickle]

If I assist you with my game totals that you provide to your clients I'd expect a commission. That's how buisness works. All joking aside i wish you the best of luck this week and beyond.

 

[ACE-ACE]

If I assist you with my game totals that you provide to your clients I'd expect a commission. That's how buisness works. All joking aside i wish you the best of luck this week and beyond.

That’s cold …….Hurt a man when he down……. lol lol lol

 

[ACE-ACE]

You shouldn't need anyone to help you Ace. Just do you. Last night I commented I thought no way SD would win especially with Herbert. They did and nice call. Good luck this week. Actually you could easily take some peeps plays and fade them. Just saying.

Thank….i got this it hard to get the normal handicapper into making a pick on tuesday. That was not smart of me to ask.

as of now I have 5 plays.

 

[itchy_pickle]

I've found over the years game totals are much easier to handicap rather than sides, at least they've been for me. In that case I could care less who wins the game. Sides have gotten harder to select year over year. I love betting totals, including 2nd half and ALT totals. I'll leave pointspread betting for someone else but I do bet a couple each week and stay above water.

 

[ACE-ACE]

I've found over the years game totals are much easier to handicap rather than sides, at least they've been for me. In that case I could care less who wins the game. Sides have gotten harder to select year over year. I love betting totals, including 2nd half and ALT totals. I'll leave pointspread betting for someone else but I do bet a couple each week and stay above water.

i was one that if I did bet a Total. It was an under…..this was 20 years ago….the key is you are winning under it goes over. Vs betting over you are losing untill you win. Lol . Looking at your posted you look like a over guy more so.

 

[itchy_pickle]

Yes, I'm about 4-1 to the over on average. I have 5 pending for this week, 1 under thus far. Last night a stand alone primetime under which is very risky.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Yes, I'm about 4-1 to the over on average. I have 5 pending for this week, 1 under thus far. Last night a stand alone primetime under which is very risky.

Use to do MYLINE on total also…it takes time….wish I could do both….its was base on what the total was. Say 40. And the game when to 50…….so the line was off +10….you do it every week. + and - to see what Las Vegas set vs what I came up with my own total line….. just wonder without tell me all. What do you look for the most in a total

 

[itchy_pickle]

I use my statistical implied model to calculate total points for each team with each game. Once I have a score for each team i now have a base total points. I compare my game totals with my book totals and fade my model. I like to see at least a 3½ point difference between the two to decide on a bet.

For instance my best total last week (even though i list them all equal) was Cincinnati at Buffalo. My Statistical-Implied Line was 46½ while Circa Sports had it on 53 as most books did. I faded my implied total with a differential of 6½ points. The game ended on 73 total points,

It seems you bet the large differential with the side of your line. I do the opposite and fade my implied totals, betting the book side. They're much smarter than we are. They have all the same info that we have and more as you know. I can't out smart the book but I can take advantage of what they're telling me with their lines where applicable.

 

[itchyback]

Ace are your lines simply season stats or
Do you adjust bills on the road poorer
Than at home

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace are your lines simply season stats or
Do you adjust bills on the road poorer
Than at home

411 is about points for each stat. It’s all math mit stuff

Date	Team	Line	Opp	Team Total	Home Dog / Fav	Better D vs Run	NFL top 5 D vs Run	Better D vs Pass	NFL top 5 D vs Pass	Better TOP	NFL top 3 TOP	Better O Run	NFL top 3 O Rush	Better O Pass	NFL top 3 O Pass	QB	RB	REC	YPC	TOP Diff	WIN %	TO Diff	Yard Avg Diff	Kick Off Ret	KR Diff	Pen Diff	1D Diff	Better Net Punt	Better FG Kick	Int Ret	Net Punt Ret Diff	Key Inj	Cold Weat
15	12/11/25	TB	-4.5	ATL	43	1	6	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	0	10	0	6	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	0	5	0
15	12/11/25	ATL	4.5	TB	85	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	6	0	6	0	1	9	21	6	0	0	0	1	0	11	0	12	0	0	0	6
15	12/14/25	CHI	-7.5	CLE	105	1	0	0	0	0	6	0	6	3	6	0	8	14	3	4	0	0	5	10	0	11	0	15	7	0	0	6
15	12/14/25	CLE	7.5	CHI	32	0	6	0	6	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	5	0
15	12/14/25	CIN	2.5	BAL	64	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	0	1	4	15	4	0	0	0	0	0	10	0	10	0	0	5	6
15	12/14/25	BAL	-2.5	CIN	85	0	6	0	6	0	6	0	6	3	0	0	21	7	9	2	0	6	5	1	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0
15	12/14/25	DEN	-1.5	GB	61	1	6	3	0	0	6	0	6	0	0	0	8	9	6	2	0	0	0	0	0	8	0	0	0	0	0	6
15	12/14/25	GB	1.5	DEN	49	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	0	6	0	3	0	6	4	0	0	5	0	0	0	8	4	7	0	0	0
15	12/14/25	KC	-4.5	LAC	89	1	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	0	10	4	15	4	0	2	1	1	0	11	0	15	7	0	0	6
15	12/14/25	LAC	4.5	KC	74	0	0	0	6	3	6	6	6	0	0	0	10	19	12	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	12/14/25	DAL	2.5	MIN	124	3	6	0	0	0	6	0	6	0	6	3	3	16	27	8	0	4	8	13	0	0	0	15	0	0	0	0
15	12/14/25	MIN	-2.5	DAL	56	0	0	0	6	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	8	14	12	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	7	0	0	0
15	12/14/25	PHI	-12	RAI	69	1	0	0	6	0	6	0	6	0	0	0	1	0	12	4	0	2	8	3	0	0	0	15	0	0	5	0
15	12/14/25	RAI	12	PHI	43	0	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	9	2	0	0	0	0	0	11	2	0	7	0	0	6
15	12/14/25	SF	-7.5	TEN	85	1	6	0	0	0	6	0	6	0	6	0	2	7	15	2	0	4	0	7	0	0	8	15	0	0	0	0
15	12/14/25	TEN	7.5	SF	53	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	6	2	0	0	6	0	0	11	0	0	7	0	5	6
15	12/14/25	NYG	4.5	WAS	70	3	0	0	6	0	6	0	0	0	6	0	19	4	6	2	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	15	0	0	0	0
15	12/14/25	WAS	-4.5	NYG	63	0	6	0	0	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	17	14	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	7	0	0	6
15	12/14/25	JAC	-12	NYJ	80	1	6	3	0	0	6	0	0	0	6	0	4	7	12	8	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	15	7	0	0	0
15	12/14/25	NYJ	12	JAC	75	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	6	0	0	0	19	8	3	0	0	0	3	0	0	11	8	0	0	0	5	6
15	12/14/25	NE	1	BUF	44	3	6	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	3	4	0	9	4	0	0	4	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0
15	12/14/25	BUF	-1	NE	96	0	0	0	6	3	6	6	6	3	0	0	12	9	3	2	0	2	0	2	0	11	0	12	7	0	0	6
15	12/14/25	LAR	1.5	DET	74	3	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	0	6	0	4	7	15	4	0	0	1	0	0	0	8	15	0	0	5	0
15	12/14/25	DET	-1.5	LAR	92	0	6	0	0	0	6	0	6	0	0	0	4	16	21	4	0	4	0	1	0	11	0	0	7	0	0	6
15	12/14/25	NO	1.5	CAR	64	3	0	0	6	0	0	0	0	0	6	0	10	0	18	4	0	0	0	0	0	11	0	0	0	0	0	6
15	12/14/25	CAR	-1.5	NO	64	0	6	0	0	0	6	0	6	0	0	0	1	0	6	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	8	15	7	0	5	0
15	12/14/25	SEA	-3.5	IND	59	1	6	3	6	0	6	0	0	0	0	0	3	11	12	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	7	0	0	0
15	12/14/25	IND	3.5	SEA	79	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	0	6	0	3	9	15	4	0	0	3	1	0	11	0	15	0	0	0	6
15	12/14/25	HOU	-9.5	ARI	71	1	6	3	6	3	6	6	6	0	0	0	10	4	15	4	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	12/14/25	ARI	9.5	HOU	103	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	3	18	9	21	6	0	0	0	1	0	11	0	15	7	0	0	6
15	12/15/25	PIT	-3	MIA	35	1	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	0	7	0	5	0
15	12/15/25	MIA	3	PIT	80	0	0	0	6	0	6	0	6	0	0	0	1	9	15	2	0	2	0	2	0	8	2	15	0	0	0	6

 

[ripper]

I "Totally" agree with your method itchy.
Book info is always better than what the average Joe can dig up. If you can't make sense of the number it's because they know something we don't, otherwise we'd all be rich! This game continues to evolve. What worked for me 45 years ago doesn't apply anymore.

 

[ACE-ACE]

MYLINE. Is about t/o….time….penaLy…….lineoff the different between the line and what happens


both Have made me win more than losing

last 3 year as the game change. Not as good in profit. Win…..up small….this year you know

411 in the early 2005. Hit 63. Over the last 20 year 56% life time.

 

[itchy_pickle]

@ripper I consider myself on a higher level than the average Joe BUT nowhere near the caliber of a book and why they set a certain game total number where they do and i won't begin to guess. You're absolutely correct though. I will never try to outsmart my book but I'll ride their number if its significantly different than my model and I don't give a damn who wins the game or who covers the spread.

 

[ACE-ACE]

On the chart top line is off by one if anyone looking at it

 

[itchy_pickle]

@ACE-ACE handicapping the NFL has most certainly changed. The game has also changed dramatically.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace are your lines simply season stats or
Do you adjust bills on the road poorer
Than at home

Your system close to the total system I did. Finding the mistake …..but I had fewer games need 10 point different

good job keep it up . Do you have a lifetime record on your total system ?

 

[skoda]

I hope you saw the prop I dropped last night….

Denver is the trend this week! undefeated at home…. Not many if any NFL teams go perfect at home, it’s rare. Packers money line